Hillary Clinton

The Indian government is not in a position of further testing nuclear devices. The government has already signed many treaties of peaceful use of nuclear power. It tried very hard to win the faith of Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), IAEA, and other countries like Australia, Russia, France, and U.S. by signing the Indo-U.S nuclear deal. India, if it continues testing the nuclear device, might upset this group of nations and may fall under imposed sanctions once again losing trust of the international diplomats.

In between, the good news for the government is the declaration made by the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who made it clear on July 18, 2009 that the Indo-US nuclear deal is not linked with India signing CTBT.

"No. not at all," Clinton said in an interview to a TV channel when asked if the deal would be held hostage to India signing the CTBT. "I worked very hard for the Indo-US civil nuclear deal. I am very committed to its full implementation," she affirmed.

She in discussions with Indian leadership in New Delhi and explored how India and US can work together to prevent the rogue states to steal and acquire of nuclear material and technology. She is worried about the Pakistani nuclear bomb falling in the wrong hands, as it is not exactly known who controls and runs Pakistan since militants, Army and non-state actors posses more power than the government in that region.

Read more:

1.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - beginning and preparation of Pokhran II
2.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - International and Domestic reactions
3.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Devices and Detonation
4.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Admission by the director after 11 years
5.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Clinton delinked Indo-US deal from CTBT

After 11 years of the Pokhran II test, K. Santhanam, then director of the preparation site for the nuclear test, told in an interview of the leading English daily in India (the Times of India) that the yield of thermonuclear explosion (Shakti I) was much lower than expected. A test is described to fail or fizzle if it doesn’t meet the desired yield. The device expected to have yielded 45KT but the seismic centres stationed outside India believed that the yield was mere 20KT, describing the test as fizzled.

K. Santhanam recently advised the government not to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), as India needs more test to fully develop the thermonuclear device.

Security expert, Bharat Karnad, supports the Santhanam’s admission, as this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one who was closely associated with the tests in 1998, said something against the government’s statements.

"This means the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it," said Karnad.

The Indian government is continues to say that the test of the thermonuclear device gave the desired result. The government argues that the three tests were done simultaneously and hence there was a conflict between the seismic waves released from different devices, that could have altered the results recorded by the Seismic stations which were located very far from the testing sites outside India.

Challenging these claims, British experts declared the combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb not having more than 20 KT.

The government has already signed many treaties of peaceful use of nuclear power. It tried very hard to win the faith of Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), IAEA, and other countries like Australia, Russia, France, and U.S. by signing the Indo-U.S nuclear deal. India, if it continues testing the nuclear device, might upset these group of nation and may fall under imposed sanctions once again, losing trust of the international diplomats.

Hearing the news of failed thermonuclear test by India, Pakistan celebrated the day with fireworks and music.

Read more:

1.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - beginning and preparation of Pokhran II
2.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - International and Domestic reactions
3.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Devices and Detonation
4.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Admission by the director after 11 years
5.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Clinton delinked Indo-US deal from CTBT

In May 1998, India carried out its second nuclear device test. Three devices were tested on 11 May, 1998 and other two on 13 May, 1998. The devices were code named as Shakti I, Shakti II, Shakti III, Shakti IV and Shakti V. The word Shakti comes from Sanskrit meaning strength. It is also the name of Hindu Goddess of strength.

"Shakti I" was a two staged thermonuclear device with a theoretical yield of 200KT, which was downgraded to 45KT for test purposes. It was a device designed mainly to produce data to analyze the performance of India's Hydrogen bomb technology for future computer simulations and actual weaponisation and not actually a nuclear warhead. This is the device which is now believed to have failed and fizzled during the test.

"Shakti II" was a purely nuclear warhead, using Plutonium with a yield of 15KT, which can be delivered by jets, missiles or bombers. The device was the improved version of the device tested in 1974. Indigenous made supercomputer Param was used to test and analyze the data to improve the design. The 1998 test was intended to prove the validity of the improved designs.

"Shakti III" - This was an experimental test to study the possibility of using the plutonium used in the nuclear  warheads and also to prove India’s capability of controlling and damping an explosion by lowering the yield, as this boosted fission device was of primary yield of 0.3KT.

"Shakti IV" - a 0.5 KT experimental device. The test's only purpose was to collect data about the explosion process and to study the performance of various bomb components. 

"Shakti V" - a 0.2 KT experimental device that used U-233, an isotope of uranium not found in nature and produced in India's fast breeder reactors that consume Thorium. This device too was used to collect data. The production, designing, testing of the nuclear devices was done in three labs of defense, Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC). 

From BARC, they were taken to Mumbai Airport by Army trucks and from there, by AN-32 transport aircraft of air force, it was taken to Jaisalmer air base. From there again it was transported to Pokhran testing range, all during nights. 

It was hot in the Pokhran desert; the temperature reached 43°C on the day of the test. But the critical factor was the wind. Although the tests were underground, they were shallow tests and the sealing of the shaft could not be guaranteed to be leak-proof, as a number of shaft seal failures had already occurred during tests by USA, USSR and UK, despite the shafts being much deeper. Winds blowing toward inhabited areas, as occurred on the morning on 11 May were not acceptable. But, by early afternoon, the winds had died down and the scientists decided to go ahead with the tests. 

The three devices (Shakti I, II & III) were detonated simultaneously at 3:43:44.2 p.m. local, as measured by international seismic monitors. Seismic data collected by stations outside India have placed the total magnitude of the first event at 5.3 (+/- 0.4), making it one of the largest seismic events in the world during the 24 hr period during which it occurred. The measured seismic center of the triple event was located at 27.0716 deg N latitude, and 71.7612 deg E longitude, which places it only 2.8 km from the 1974 test site (which was at 27.095 deg N, 71.752 deg E). 

Just two days later, on 13 May, at 2:51 a.m. EST, 12.21 p.m. local, two sub-kiloton devices were detonated underground. Due to very low yield, this event was not detected by any of the seismic stations. The Seismic data collected by international stations claimed that the Indian nuclear device Shakti I didn’t worked well, since the claimed yield by the government was not analyzed by the seismic centres and they believe the yield was much lower than expected. That gives an idea about the failure of this first device. 

The Indian government reacted by telling that the testing of Shakti I was done simultaneously with Shakti II & III and hence there was a conflict between the seismic waves released from different devices, that could have altered the results recorded by the Seismic stations which were located very far from the testing sites.

Read more:

1.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - beginning and preparation of Pokhran II
2.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - International and Domestic reactions
3.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Devices and Detonation
4.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Admission by the director after 11 years
5.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Clinton delinked Indo-US deal from CTBT

Vladimir Putin

Soon after the conduction of Pokhran II nuclear device test on 11 and 13 May 1998, a press conference was invited at the prime minister’s residence. The long term silence on this issue broke out, as the government admitted the conduction of tests. Vajpayee appeared before the press corps and made the following short statement:

“Today, at 1545 hours, India conducted three underground nuclear tests in the Pokhran range. The tests conducted today were with a fission device, a low yield device and a thermonuclear device. The measured yields are in line with expected values. Measurements have also confirmed that there was no release of radioactivity into the atmosphere. These were contained explosions like the experiment conducted in May 1974. I warmly congratulate the scientists and engineers who have carried out these successful tests.”

This news certainly brought cheers, not because India was going nuclear that meant superiority over others, but because of the research and development involved in this project, as India had to do all this indigenously to keep the project secret. Most important of this was all doubts were removed on India’s nuclear capability, after the first nuclear test in 1974. Bombay Stock Exchange, Sensex also registered significant gains.

International reaction was almost opposite of the reactions received from within the country. The United States took a strong stand, condemned India and warned about the following sanctions. The American establishment was embarrassed as there had been a serious intelligence failure in detecting the preparations for the test. UN also expressed its disappointment, that it would trigger a nuclear arm race in the region.  Canada was into a problem and reassured the world that the CIRUS reactor was not in anyway connected to the 1998 tests, as the CIRUS reactor provided plutonium to India in the 1974 test. China also strongly condemned Indian actions and was worried about its security, thus it called upon to make India sign Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and erase all Indian nuclear arsenals. This gave rise to a new strategic dimension in Asia, particularly South Asia.

A storm of reactions also raised in Pakistan, India’s main rival. Pakistan blamed India for instigating a nuclear arms race in the region and challenged that it will give a tough reply to India. Fifteen days later, Pakistan also tested its nuclear device with the help of China, involving reverse engineering of the Chinese bomb. Pakistan also got strong reactions from Argentina to Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States, United Kingdom, Canada, United States, France, Germany and West Europe, etc though Pakistan got extreme appraisal by the gulf and other Islamic nations. The Pakistani nuclear bomb became hope for the nuclear bomb in Iran, Libya and North Korea. The US president Bill Clinton was quoted as saying "Two wrongs don't make a right", criticizing Pakistan's tests as reactionary to India's Pokhran-II.

India's and Pakistan's decision to detonate a nuclear bomb resulted in severe and comprehensive economic and technology related sanctions by a number of states. Over a period of time, these sanctions proved to have exerted only marginal effects on India’s economy and technological progress, and most of the sanctions were lifted within five years of their enactment. Pakistan had to spend tough times and somehow made America donate money to fund its falling economy. Till date, Pakistan gets monthly aid worth billions of dollars.

Read more:

1.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - beginning and preparation of Pokhran II
2.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - International and Domestic reactions
3.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Devices and Detonation
4.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Admission by the director after 11 years
5.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Clinton delinked Indo-US deal from CTBT

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India conducted its second nuclear test on May, 1998. Referred as Pokhran II, the country tested its five nuclear devices, three on May 11, 1998 and two on May 13, 1998. The tests resulted in a variety of reactions from within the country and from abroad, and also invited sanctions against the country by some major states. On May 18, 1974 India conducted its first nuclear device, code named Smiling Buddha, declaring itself as a nuclear power.

The bitter defeat in the 1962 Sino-Indian war, where India lost a part of its territory in Kashmir (Aksai Chin) to Pakistan, triggered the development of such system in India. Pakistan then gifted a part of its occupied Kashmir to China. China and Pakistan are hence connected and have built a highway which China uses to deploy its navy in Arabian sea, close to India. It underscored the need to have a strong military with a comprehensive capability to deter enemy forces. 

In 1964 China tested its nuclear device at Lop Nur. After this, India kick started its nuclear program. Bhabha Atomic Research Centre started developing bomb grade plutonium and other bomb components. The project was stopped after the death of Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru, but was resumed during the period of Indira Ghandi in 1968.

In 1995, further needs of testing the bomb aroused. P.V Narsimha Rao, then prime minister, decided to carry out the tests, but the movement were detected by American spy satellites and soon the pressure was put on India to stop the testing. Now the task was to test nuclear bomb without letting anyone know. On 11 May 1998, under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India carried its second nuclear device test. The detection of preparation of such test in 1995 by American satellites alerted Indian scientists and, this time, extensive measures were taken in order to deceive intelligence agencies around the world. The decision to test was not disclosed even to senior cabinet ministers. The preparations were managed by a closed group of scientists, military officers and politicians. Much of the work was done at night. The equipments were always returned to the same spot at the onset of dawn to deceive American satellites that the equipments never moved. Piles of dug-out sand were shaped to mimic the wind shaped dune forms in the desert area. The shafts were dug under camouflage netting. When cables for sensors were laid they were carefully covered with sand, and native vegetation was replaced to conceal the digging.

India adopted a policy of ambiguity. Statements by Indian diplomats gave an impression to the world that India has not yet decided its future nuclear plans.

Read more:

1.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - beginning and preparation of Pokhran II
2.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - International and Domestic reactions
3.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Devices and Detonation
4.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Admission by the director after 11 years
5.India's failed thermonuclear weapon - Clinton delinked Indo-US deal from CTBT

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Though the Indian side keeps maintaining the statement that the Chinese border has been the most peaceful among all other Indian border, something is not going well on the northern frontier.

In early September of this year, a delegation to China lead by former minister of state of external affairs, Rao Inderjit Singh, was quashed as the reports of People’s Liberation Army’s intrusion in India came in. The Chinese army violated the international border line and infiltrated deep into the Indian Territory in Ladakh.

The weekly Magazine quoted P. Stobdan saying “Chinese soldiers entered Indian Territory; they painted the rocks red and asked the shepherds and the local people to vacate the place.”

It is not the first case of intrusion. There have been many such incidents, according to Ajeet Kumar Sahu, District Magistrate of Leh (District headquarter of Ladakh). Chinese helicopters also invaded the territory last June. The government is putting curtains on this whole issue. The reason might be the unpreparedness of India for a war with China. And that will be the case for the next 15 years or more.

Both Pakistani and Chinese army have far greater autonomy than Indian Army. The Indian army is totally under government and cannot take any decision without notifying the government, whereas the power of other two armies is so great that they can even overthrow the government and establish a military rule, as in the case of Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

At one side in the field of business, China and India are doing well together and for one another. China also participated in the first BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) summit in Yekaterinburg. Two major auto companies of India, Bajaj and Mahindra, have started production in China. (Another thing that China has made fake - a version of Bajaj’s Pulsar and it's selling in cheap prizes, which has turned the Bajaj Auto’s sale down.)

On the other hand China is surrounding India from all the sides, making bases everywhere. A number of airbases on the border and missile silo is increasing every day. China talks about peace in the region with India but then provides Pakistan weapons, ammunition, training, nuclear fuel and money in billion dollars. China is also making a naval base in Pakistan, few 100KM away from India.  It is a known fact that China is pushing fake, duplicate and cheap quality products into the Indian markets. After the reports of production of duplicate drugs of Indian pharmaceuticals companies by China and exporting contaminated milk to India and to other countries, India has banned few of the Chinese products like dairy products, toys etc. On this China says it will do a tit for tat.

After the Chinese government took over Tibet (which was strongly opposed by India), the conflict between India and China raised. However, both nations were newly established, hence they explored ways to avoid wars and in 1954 the two countries signed Panchseel (5 Agreements).

1. Mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty
2. Mutual non-aggression
3. Mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs
4. Equality and mutual benefit
5. Peaceful co-existence

But, in 1962, China violated this agreement and launched an offensive attack on North India, without giving any warning. India lost that war and lost a part of its territory to China.

The relation with China is half good and half bad. It is like yin-yang. One side of China is good but other side is bad. India doesn't want to spoil the bilateral trade with China worth $15 billion during the hard period of recession. But it should be cautious about its own geopolitical and economic security.

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The world’s eye is right now on Iran’s nuclear bomb. Does it exist or not? Or is it still underdevelopment? Why does Iran need such weapon? What will it do of it?

It all started in 1950 with the help of United States. Iran began its nuclear program saying that it needs this power to satisfy its energy needs in the future, as the oil in the gulf is soon going to be exhausted. This campaign was backed by many other gulf countries and Pakistan. But many others took a stand against this issue and presume that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon. The controversy over Iran's nuclear programs centers, in particular, on Iran's failure to declare sensitive enrichment and reprocessing activities to the IAEA.

Weather the bomb exists or not, it is very difficult to say, as they don’t perpetuate transparency on this matter. But a U.S report claims that Iran is very close to making a Nuclear Bomb.

Iran has fear from only two countries, Israel and U.S. Delivering the nuclear bomb to U.S is out of question for Iran, at least for the next 10 to 12 years, as it doesn’t have Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and its bomb carrying aircrafts can be shot down much before they reach America.

But it can deliver its nuclear bomb to Israel. The rest of the Islamic states are so proud of Iran to be so audacious, that it is giving a lasting challenge to Israel and America. It is also getting commendation from Pakistan, who gets funds from these gulf countries to continue its nuclear program.

It is viewed that Pakistan has illegally provided nuclear technology to Iran, which it itself got from China. When it comes to delivery system North Korea comes into the picture, since it provided Pakistan missiles in return of nuclear bomb making technology and it is believed it has been transferred to Iran.

A.Q Khan Pakistan’s bomb man, in his recent interview, told that Pakistan got the nuclear fuel from the Sri Lankan Muslims via Dubai, which he said is also the source of Iran’s nuclear fuel.

Iran’s nuclear bomb will unbalance the power in the region. Iran will use it mostly as a deterrent against Israel, but it may get offensive against Israel and nuke them as soon as they develop it. It is a problem for Israel as the gulf countries want to wipe them off from this world. In such case, an eye should be kept on Iran’s nuclear program and the world should not depend much on Iran’s oil. Venezuela, Russia, Central Asia should become more active in oil trade. There is a need to develop technology to harness clean energy. Otherwise, their oil may become a blackmail tool for them, which they can use as a weapon against anyone who is not in their favor.

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In the past four years, since the Thar Express between India and Pakistan was flagged off, over 5000 Pakistani have crossed over to India. The weekly train starts from Karachi, enters India at Munabao, a border town in Barmer, and runs up to Jodhpur.

The government figures say that in first year (2006) around 392 Pakistani, including Hindus, came to India. The figures increased to 880 in 2007, 1240 in 2008. This year, till August, over 1000 have crossed over. They just keep extending their visas and hope to become Indian citizens. Sources say there are many more who cross over and melt in the local milieu. And officials have a soft corner for these people, most of whom have harrowing stories to tell.

Ranaram, who used to live in the Rahimyar district of Pakistan’s Punjab, says he fell prey to the Taliban. His wife was kidnapped, raped and forcibly converted to Islam. His two daughters were also forcibly converted. Ranaram, too, had to accept Islam for fear of his life. He thought it best to flee with his two daughters; his wife was untraceable.

Dungaram, another migrant, says atrocities against minorities in Pakistan have increased in the past two years after the ouster of Musharraf. "We won't get permanent jobs unless we convert to Islam."

Hindu Singh Sodha, president of Seemant Lok Sangathan, a group working for the refugees in Barmer and Jaisalmer, says there's unfortunately no proper refugee policy in India, even though people from Pakistan reach here in large numbers. (Source : Times of India, Bennett & Coleman, UK)

The condition of minority in Pakistan consisting of Sikhs, Christians and Hindus is really very bad, and the government is unable to take any action as they have soft corner for Taliban, which is an indirect source of income to them. Every month Pakistan receives billions of dollars as aid from U.S, EU and other friendly nations to destroy Taliban, but Pakistan instead, used that money in anti India activities (See : Is Pakistan using US aid to expand nuclear arsenal?) & (See: Pak Using US Aid for War Against India).

In 2007 the Indian government gave permanent citizenship to many such refugees.

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This July, when Obama made a visit to Russia, Unlike George W. Bush, he mentioned that he is willing to press the 'reset' button on relations with Russia. Moscow was given the priority over Tokyo, Beijing, and New Delhi. The two former rivals were on a brink of war last August when Russian troops entered deep into Georgia, which was strongly opposed by the U.S and NATO.

Major success came out of the July 6-July 8 summit, as Russia agreed to help U.S in Afghanistan by opening its airspace for the U.S transport air crafts to fly weapons, troops, hardwares, etc. across its territory to Afghanistan, without any navigational charge and security check. U.S said that this would save around $133 million per year.

Another very important agreement to reduce the total number of nuclear arsenal in both the country up to 1675 warheads and delivery vehicles to 1,100 was signed. Such a step was necessary to encourage nuclear proliferation and discourage new countries working on nuclear bombs. The problem here lies with how the number of present warheads are counted. U.S declares they possess around 2,200 warheads, though Russia believes that the count is much more than that, around 5,500 warheads. At this, U.S response was a little strange. U.S only counts the number of warheads which are deployed and are in ready to fire state. Russia strongly criticized the proposal by US of excluding the long range missiles from the treaty, whose nuclear warheads have been replaced by conventional one. The good news is that both of them agreed to open a joint early warning centre to share data on missile launches.

Russia, in overall summit, was seen to be a little reserved. Russian foreign ministry described the summit as "groundbreaking" and stopped short of using the "reset" metaphor. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said that 'the two sides merely managed to halt the degradation of our relations'.

Moscow's major problem is its treatment like an enemy by America, even after the collapse of USSR. Moscow strongly criticizes the NATO forces placed by America on Russian borders,  their bases around and interference in the region of its influence. After the collapse of Soviet Union, the Warsaw pact was dissolved, but NATO still exists. The proposed U.S missile shield in Czech Republic is also seen by Russia as a security threat. Medvedev said that if U.S moves ahead with its plan then Russia will be forced to deploy Iskander missiles in the Kalingrad region of Russia, as it would lie outside the range of Czech missile shield.

While Russia is helping U.S in Afghanistan, it doesn't like American presence in the former Soviet Union. Recently Russia praised Kyrgystan's decision to shut down the Manas air base, the only U.S air base in Central Asia. Russia's strong message to U.S was "if you want us to cooperate on issues of concern to you, then you should accommodate Russian interests."

Obama has though refused to stop the talks with Ukraine and Georgia for NATO's membership.

Russia, which remained quiet since the disintegration Soviet Union, was seen hard against the superpower America. But what's more important was seen in the summit: that both sides were willing to cooperate and discover new areas of common interest to work on.

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